The document ends with these words:
"This employee initiative was born spontaneously from a person-to-person dialogue. It is not the emanation of a militant approach in the traditional sense. We, engineers, researchers, technicians, experts, believe deeply in Orange's values and it is in this capacity that we believe our Group is intellectually capable of piloting strategic orientations that are truly controversial, especially when they raise the question of the future of humanity and of all living things.
"Let's dare, now, to stop the deployment of 5G."
The text of Orange employees denouncing the excesses of this new technology:
Why stop 5G: sharing an awareness
Translation (Original text in French)
https://www.demain-en-mains.info/stopper-la-5-g
Contents
Summary
I. The environmental and energy risk
I.1. Depletion of resources, reality
I.2. The illusion of recycling
I.3. Energy drunkenness
II. Financial risk
II.1. Investments: what visibility?
II.2. A weakened economic system
III. For which cases of use?
III.1. Budgetary realities of telesurgery
III.2. Computer realities of the autonomous car
III.3. Cyber security risks
IV. The necessary refocusing on resilient infrastructures
IV.1. The increase in network incidents of climatic origin
IV.2. Rising waters
IV.3. For the resilience of our industry
IV.4. Time to decide
V. Conclusion
Bibliography
Summary
Environmental issues permeate the whole of society and infuse all our markets: General Public, Professional, Key Accounts. As Orange employees, who have always been lulled by the promises of technology, we ourselves have had difficulty in fully appreciating the impact of digital technology on the planet. It took us a long time to understand what our room for action could be. Today, through this document, we would like to share our awareness with as many people as possible. Because yes, our social and environmental responsibility is committed. At a time when Orange wants to make a name for itself through the release of an "eco-responsible" LiveBox, it is time to be coherent.
We are all deeply keen to ensure the survival of our company, and it is precisely for this reason that we are calling for the end of the deployment of 5G, especially for the general public.
5G, as a support for the multiplication of uses and the manufacture of countless connected objects, will lead to an unsustainable consumption of physical resources and energy that will increase the global ecological disaster. Each use, each object will generate unmanageable waste that will aggravate the generalized pollution. As it stands, 5G is not justified by any established economic perspective despite its very high cost, nor any reasonable need for new services for our customers. Finally, 5G presents regulatory and cyber security risks.
Let's examine together, instead of the 5G project and by reusing the resources allocated to it, alternative scenarios to refocus our businesses towards the objectives of resilience and digital sobriety. To build a network, products and services that are sustainable are to be an ethical leader, truly innovative and visionary. It also means restoring meaning to work and enabling each of us to feel deeply proud to be Orange.
This document presents an initial analysis of the environmental consequences and major risks associated with the deployment of 5G. It is based on serious documentary sources, which can be consulted in the bibliography. It shows that the continuity of our functions as a telecoms operator and digital services company is threatened in the short term.
To retain
At a time when environmental issues can no longer be ignored, it is urgent to redefine Orange's strategy and stop the deployment of 5G. Because this highly resource- consuming technology will bring no return on investment, no social gain, and requires a very significant financial and environmental cost, let us refuse to deploy it, and mobilize our resources on projects of resilience and digital sobriety.
I. The environmental and energy risk
We are convinced that 5G carries direct and indirect dangers for the environment, which we propose to address in this document in a rigorous and scientific manner.
Consequently, we will leave aside for the moment the questions concerning the dangerousness of millimeter waves. We will concentrate on macroscopic realities established by scientific and field sources (see bibliography): depletion of resources; waste problems; energy cravings.
I.1. Depletion of resources, reality
Network infrastructures on the one hand (routing components, servers, new antennas, etc.) and terminals on the other hand - which are set to undergo renewal and a quantitative explosion - have to face up to an inescapable physical reality: the planet's metal resources are becoming increasingly scarce. Journalist Guillaume Pitron sums up the geopolitical stakes well [1]. Let's say it outright: ignoring the resulting trajectories of scarcity would be tantamount to suicidal denial at the present time. In other words, not being informed today is a deliberate choice, if one takes into account the profusion of media of all persuasions, from France Culture [2] to Income [3], from Mediapart [4] to Capital [5][6], which cast a harsh light on this reality. Shortages tomorrow, human and environmental calamities today... What Le Revenu, for example, describes with unusual accents, is eloquently chilling: "The conditions of extraction of rare metals and their environmental consequences are controversial: dumping of toxic waste, pollution of the water tables, lack of protection for workers, damage to soil fertility, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, contamination of water, soil, air and ecosystems, carcinogenic discharges.” What Capital magazine reports has a tone no less unprecedented, which should challenge us: "Where it is established, mining activity generates land dispossession, violence against the community, destabilizes democracy, promotes corruption of institutions, pollutes water, poisons rivers ...".
The tone is set in the ethical field. It echoes the uncompromising statement made by the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Denis Mukwege [7] (child labor, violence against women, working conditions in the mines, etc.) but, whatever our (in)sensitivity to this social disaster, we cannot pretend to ignore a dryly quantitative reality. For example, silver, antimony, chromium, gold [8], zinc, indium, neodymium, strontium, tin, lead, copper itself, and other non-metallic resources are likely to face supply difficulties over the next two decades [9][10], and for some in the much shorter term - whether due to stock depletion or geostrategic instability [11]. The electronics industry acknowledges that it is deeply affected by this trajectory right now [12], as L'Usine Nouvelle [13] is alarmed. Tesla is similarly concerned with the U.S. government about the threat of supply [14]. The manufacture of new generations of smartphones and 5G connected objects will therefore accelerate the agenda of this tension over resources, as Hugues Ferreboeuf [15][16] and Jean-Marc Jancovici [17] have mentioned, with the latter's company Carbone 4 also advising Orange.
It is high time for us to open our eyes, firstly, to the criminal destruction of the environment caused by the addiction to smartphones renewed at such a frantic and unjustified pace [18], and, secondly, to the particular responsibility of our digital industry, which knowingly pays a conscious tribute to such renewal, given the stacking of increasingly fast cellular networks, which are stimulating demand all the more.
All ethical notions eventually put aside, and reality being hopelessly stubborn, it seems vital to make our ambitions correspond to a reality that cannot be masked from now on: sobriety will have to be learned among all the major economic players who consume rare metals, or even certain common metals.
In a more peripheral way, we must finally keep in mind other shortages, such as the shortage of concrete, a veritable countdown to the global sand crisis [19].
I.2. The illusion of recycling
Given these worrying prospects, is recycling a solution?
Evoking the complete renewal of current equipment and the construction of a myriad of new terminals also raises the question of these objects as future waste [20]. At a time when major players such as China are changing their historical strategy for dealing with electronic waste from the rest of the world [21], we will not be able to avoid a debate on the entire life cycle.
As demonstrated over and over again by surveys, recycling is expensive, very insufficient and it remains one industrial process among others that emits carbon. Françoise Berthoud, from the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research), points out bluntly that "[...] Even in France, only 50% of our end-of-life electronic equipment undergoes a suitable process. This, because of losses during recycling and the technological impossibilities to recycle certain materials, results in a very low material recycling (around 3% of the weight of smartphones - waste, for example).”[22]. Waste mafias are powerfully organized and devastate entire territories (on the African continent, in particular [23]) while the responsibility of large companies on these issues is insufficiently developed.
In this context, the CNRS has shown us, in our premises at Orange Gardens, that even if we achieved a theoretical recycling of 100% of materials today (which is not possible), this remains incompatible with an exponential increase in the objects produced (and therefore in the need for materials) [24].
Recycling is therefore necessary but very insufficient. We cannot therefore remain indifferent to the warnings of ADEME and the Shift Project, both advocating an attitude of digital sobriety [25] (theorized in the report of the same name [26]) that is totally contradictory to the accumulation of equipment linked to 5G uses [17].
I.3. Energy drunkenness
Numerous optimizations are being made to improve the energy impact of our networks [27] and the watt per customer use at Orange has even been reduced by more than a third in a decade [28], which is commendable, since EDF is also Orange's leading supplier in terms of spending. Our Group consumes 4.3TWh, the equivalent of the consumption of 960,000 French people (2017 figure) [29] or the equivalent of all the electricity produced in Lithuania (2016 figure) [30], a European country of 3 million inhabitants.
Massively deploying 5G, regardless of the optimizations at work, is a cumulative act (as long as the networks of previous generations remain in place, given the regulatory obligations stipulated by ARCEP [31]). This stacking of networks will induce a new increase in our overall consumption. The impact of 5G itself, independently of the consumption of other networks, is for the moment difficult to estimate, according to our own CSR [32]. However, as historical hindsight shows, Jevons' paradox (or "rebound effect", stating that "[...] as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, the total consumption of that resource may increase rather than decrease [...]" [33]) has been verified for each gain in efficiency or energy performance. Such an empirically verifiable permanence of the effects on consumption invites questioning.
In short, we are on the verge of consuming more and more energy, and this reality must be confronted with the risks inherent to the energy sector, which faces enormous challenges [34].
For the first time, no doubt, we are no longer in a position to give free rein to our ontological carelessness, which consists in persuading ourselves that, as always, we will find a solution.... The supply of electrical energy is today subject to increasing tensions, among other things due to heat waves [35] that are certainly becoming commonplace. The risks and, alas, the occurrences of blackouts are evident from this. The probability of these risks is growing. Also, the strategy aimed at deploying an additional, energy-intensive network weakens the availability of all our services, whereas our opportunities would be to aim for a principle of resilience, which we will discuss later.
To retain
Threats to resources are multiple, from metals to rare earths and even concrete. At the same time, recycling provides only a partial response and our energy consumption is constantly increasing. Our company must integrate the constraints that currently weigh on our sector of activity and orient its strategy towards greater sobriety...
II. Financial risk
II.1. Investments: what visibility?
Deploying 5G requires several types of investments: financial, material and human.
Firstly, experimentation and prototyping require resources in man-days, network element adaptation operations, even advertising and media coverage. Then come the investments in licenses. In Germany and Italy, operators have collectively spent more than 6.5 billion euros [36][37][38]. It is likely that the cost of licenses for Orange, in France, exceeds one billion euros. In France, these state licensing awards for 5G are likely to be accompanied by particularly demanding coverage clauses [39]: "Quid pro quos will be demanded from operators. They will most likely have to make strong commitments in terms of territorial coverage.”
From a hardware point of view, 5G represents considerable investments in its physical infrastructure (new antennas at a rate of €9,000 to €15,000 per unit, modification of lower generation antennas that can be reused in the first phase of deployment, at a rate of €2,000 to €5,000 per unit [40]). 5G can initially be deployed only where 4G is already in place, according to the co-location principle decreed by ARCEP. [41]
Finally, the "network slicing" technology will be accompanied by an upgrade of the middle and core network components and the addition of software virtualization elements [42], which will increase the cost in terms of investment.
II.2. A weakened economic system
In a more general framework to be taken with caution when it comes to economic forecasting, the risk of recession in the United States as early as 2020, and hence of a global recession, is underlined by many economists - Americans included. Various financial bubbles are threatening to burst (such as the US student debt of US$1,500 billion) and the inversion of the Treasury Bill yield curve is tetanizing macroeconomic analysts [43]. In early October 2019, in the context of the global economic slowdown, the IMF pointed to the risk of an increase in the debt of companies exposed to default, to the tune of US$19 trillion, more than in 2008. [44]. The support mechanisms for the banking sector that prevailed in 2008 are unlikely to be renewed in the event of a real crisis. And we are currently observing the massive injection of liquidity by central banks, reflecting an infusion of liquidity into the economic system [45][46][47]. Until when?
In France, the recent "yellow jackets" crisis is also prompting us to reconsider the idea of offering high-value 5G packages (which seems to be the Group's strategy, with packages envisaged at around €65 per month...). Do we really think that French households will accept this new expense when a significant proportion of French people are struggling to make ends meet? We believe it is essential to assess our customers' ability over the next few years to devote an increasing budget to digital access services and related equipment. The reserve of French households in the face of excess of electronic equipment is shown by a May 2019 BVA Orange survey: 73% of respondents believe that the development of digital equipment has a significant impact on the environment [48].
This reminds us that, in a highly unstable world, our customers' fundamental expectation of their operators is the seamless resilience of simple, robust services. In other words, the ability to contact their loved ones at all times to check up on them and to contact emergency services if necessary. Isn't that what we want too? [49].
To retain
The deployment of 5G will require massive investments: what is the budget equation envisaged, the business plan envisaged? Do they exist? The investments will commit the company in the long term, at a time when the global economic system is showing worrying signs of weakening.
III. For which cases of use?
Above all, in the face of these expenses and constraints demanded by the public authorities, what are the prospects for returns on investment? We do not wish to disqualify the legitimate enthusiasm that the announcement of new services can generate, because such a stance would be contrary to our spirit of innovation. But we do wish, given the risks presented in the preceding paragraphs on materials and energy, to invite a distinction between the necessary and the superfluous; possible unicorns and plausible fiascos; exceptional use of everyday use [50].
Thus we must question ourselves about the real perimeter of certain cases of repeated ad libitum use as if they alone justified the arsenal of an additional generation of cellular telephony [51], such as the two emblematic examples of telesurgery [52] and the autonomous car.
III.1 Budgetary realities of telesurgery
If technology can save human lives, a realistic framework must be provided. The implementation of telesurgery is by nature circumscribed - that is, a doctor will not operate from a restaurant on a patient who is lost in the countryside. A telesurgery operation will require investments in robotics that would be out of reach for a local hospital structure, even a modern one. In France, the hospital sector is already under severe budgetary pressure [53]. 5G is only the link between hospital robots that are inaccessible to the general public or to hospitals [54] and this link already exists with fiber optics (technically available since 2001). The use of 5G in a medical context is perhaps worth studying, but in any case should be dissociated from the idea of a 5G for the general public.
III.2 Digital realities of the autonomous car
The large-scale deployment of the autonomous car, of which 5G would be the prerequisite, requires recalling the intrinsic limits of artificial intelligence [55] ("there is a logical contradiction in wanting to create something autonomous: how can a system be programmed to have non-programmed behavior?" exclaims Églantine Schmitt [56]); the gigantic storage needs; and the immense software processing capacities that would have to be summoned to ensure the circulation of these vehicles [57].
To quote Philippe Bihouix [58]: "An autonomous car should generate a few dozen to several hundred MB of data per second. Depending on the actual time of use (an average of 1h30 per day for the average person's car, but use could increase significantly with cars making automatic journeys for multiple customers), the daily data flow could be several thousand GB - 4000 GB according to Intel. There are currently nearly 1 billion cars on Earth - 1.2 billion since the beginning of 2019 [59]. "A single million autonomous vehicles would [then] require as much data exchange as 3 billion people connected to their phones or tablets," explains the CEO of Intel France, Stéphane Nègre. A data explosion that would be nothing extraordinary for the digital sector... if it did not lead to the same explosion in energy consumption and therefore environmental damage.”
In conclusion, and in view of the mixed beginnings of 5G in the United States [61], we ask the question: what then is the killer application justifying 5G?
III.3. Cybersecurity risks
5G IoT is a concern for experts, given the increased penetration area for hackers. As the number of connected objects increases, it becomes more difficult to protect and monitor access to these objects. According to a study by Netscout, connected objects are attacked within 5 minutes of being connected to the Internet [62]. Moreover, the increase in speed allows for larger DDOS (Distributed Denial Of Service) attacks: "More IoT devices means bigger botnets [...]. The Mirai type varieties were self-limiting in terms of the size they could get [...]. But with millions or billions of IoT devices [63] out there, these botnets can get much, much bigger.”
And when it comes to new, highly critical uses such as autonomous driving or smart-home, a cyber attack is no longer just a problem of brand image or loss of customer data. “When controlling your car on the freeway, performing remote surgery or providing power to cities, a cyber-attack can literally become a matter of life or death.” [63].
Do we really want to promote such risky cases of use, when the natural threats weighing on the planet are already critical?
To retain
The cases of use currently put forward to promote 5G are of a forward-looking nature and will not be able to support the move to scale. These same uses will increase our dependence on technology to the point of entrusting our lives to it, placing us in a situation of critical vulnerability in the face of cyber-attacks.
IV. The need to refocus on resilient infrastructures
IV.1. The multiplication of network incidents of climatic origin
In August 2019, the city of London was "plunged into darkness" for 2 hours due to a combination of malfunctions on the national power grid. The Daily Telegraph gives an apocalyptic account of it [64], ranging from the railway cut-off to the silent mobile networks and various anomalies affecting public services (hospitals, etc.). "Trains stop, traffic lights go out. The Ipswich hospital is no longer powered by the electrical grid and its backup generators are also failing. The only relay for its emergency systems are batteries." Almost a million people are affected in total, never before seen [65].
The long energy supply crisis that Venezuela experienced at the beginning of 2019, and its dramatic repercussions [66], give a measure of the risk we are facing.
Such disasters could also affect France, and the blackout almost occurred in January 2019. [67] RTE reacted quickly by asking interruptible industrial consumers [68] to "instantly reduce their electricity consumption by more than 1,500 MW in order to raise the frequency [NB: ...which has fallen significantly below 50Hz]". During the summer of 2019, EDF had to temporarily shut down several nuclear reactors because of heat waves. [69] Finally, at the beginning of September 2019, 5 reactors were threatened with temporary shutdown [70], which represents, taking into account the size of the French sector (58 reactors) and the share of nuclear power in the electricity production mix (71%) [71], between 5 and 8% of the total electrical energy produced in France.
In addition to documented blackouts, the prevalence of climatic origins for network incidents in Europe is increasing: 169 incidents involving communication networks in Europe were recorded in 2017 by the European Network and Information Security Agency (ENISA), which states that 17% of outages were due to climatic phenomena such as snow, ice, storms and fires. Three years earlier, this rate was only 5% [72].
An energetic sword of Damocles hangs over us and we must lucidly face this reality: because of our energy trajectory, we are dancing above a volcano and, what is more, the predominantly nuclear energy sector on which we depend is in a precarious state [73].
Such episodes, given the acceleration of climate change, are bound to multiply.
IV.2 Rising waters
In a broader framework than that of energy, the rise of the oceans, a tragic consequence of the climate disruption induced by anthropic activity, will pose a direct threat to the stability of the global Internet given the risks of submerging vital digital infrastructures, as in New York [75][76]. The Goldman Sachs report "Taking the Heat" of September 2019 is very explicit about our imperatives of preparedness and warns of the need for extensive urban planning, investments in coastal protection, climate-resilient building patterns, more robust infrastructure, improved water and waste management systems, energy resilience, and stronger communication and transportation systems: "[...] Urban adaptation could drive one of the largest infrastructure build-outs in history. Greater resilience will likely require extensive urban planning, with investments in coastal protections, climate-resilient construction, more robust infrastructure, upgraded water and waste-management systems, energy resilience and stronger communications and transportation systems. [...] “ [78]
IV.3. For the resilience of our industry
According to ARCEP's [Electronic Communications, Postal and Print Media Distribution Regulatory Authority] definition in its 2018 activity report [79], network resilience consists of "the ability of an operator to ensure the return to normal operation of the infrastructures it operates and the services it provides in the shortest possible time, following major failures of its network causing degradation and service interruptions".
As ARCEP still regretted at the end of 2016 in a notice to the Cour des Comptes [80], "The issues related to the resilience of communication networks do not today benefit from the same dynamics as digital security issues".
Given the seriousness of the multiple threats pointed out above, this opinion appears to be highly topical.
We therefore believe it is essential to refocus our activities on our primary mission as an operator, around principles of resilience, the very principles that have enabled the Internet to flourish. The TCP/IP protocol and dynamic routing, children of the Cold War, are the historical embodiment of military resilience. We believe we need to recognize today the need for climate resilience in the telecommunications sector.
This climate resilience implies ambitious principles of sobriety, which are incompatible with 5G. The firm Carbone 4, which advises Orange on energy issues, led by energy expert Jean-Marc Jancovici, makes recommendations in this regard calling for a fundamental transformation. This expert reminds us at all times that the deployment of 5G is incompatible with the commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [17], commitments that the digital industry as a whole, with an increase in energy expenditure of 9% per year, compromises by its deadly energy-intensive runaway [81].
What's more, the resilience of our industry, both at Orange and our competitors, will be put to the test in the years and decades to come. To illustrate this, among various disorders affecting the planet's equilibrium, let's take just one example of cardinal importance: climate migration, the upper range of which could reach one billion people according to the UN by 2050 [82]. Within emigration zones as well as in host countries, these population movements will give a preponderant role to telecommunications (finding a resource, contacting a relative, etc.).
Our services of tomorrow will therefore be: robust, sparing, simple, and highly secure against cyber-attackers.
IV.4. Time to make choices
We are faced with an alternative: to pursue an ecocide at a very high cost and for uses that have not been demonstrated to be either worthwhile or necessary, or to initiate a shift towards sobriety and resilience approaches for our products and services.
Other advantages of this strategy: generating real financial savings and generating sympathy among populations whose concern for the climate is growing, as shown by the success of recent global mobilizations [83], particularly among the young digital native generations.
In a similar vein, a collective of internationally renowned data scientists has just published a call to orient research in Artificial Intelligence towards solving the climate crisis [84], accompanied by concrete proposals [85]. While we have put data at the heart of our strategy, let us not remain deaf to this initiative.
Finally, it is the whole of society which, in the majority (seven French people out of ten [86]), is beginning to question a current model of economic development based on outbidding and renewal ad nauseam. Some business leaders, in an unusual way, in turn point out the tipping point we have reached: "We can no longer base the economy on the extraction of fossil materials and energy, we can no longer act as if there were no limits. There is no solution to the level of resource consumption where we are. In any case, we will have to reduce our consumption, whatever happens. For a company, this means that we can no longer rush into a product because there is a market to be taken. Instead, we have to ask ourselves if it is useful for society to produce a certain product and, if so, whether we are producing it in the right way. In fact, we must accept the end of economic domination over society”. This is how Jacques Crahay [87], leader and president of the UWE, the Walloon equivalent of our MEDEF, expresses himself.
We have the know-how, the material and financial means, allowing us to make major strategic changes.
Our GPEC has several times demonstrated our ability to adapt.
We have the communication power of the major digital players, to write and broadcast the story of our technological orientations. To our customers and shareholders alike.
With great power comes great responsibility.
We can lead this paradigm shift.
We can move away from the green-washing postures that strongly discredit our sincerity and will be, in a deterministic way, powerless to stem the climatic and humanitarian disasters to come.
To retain
Observing reality forces us to put the imperative of resilience of our infrastructures and services back at the heart of our strategy. Our services of tomorrow will have to be robust, sparing, simple, and highly secure to meet the challenges that lie ahead. Orange has the means to achieve these ambitions.
V. Conclusion
There are times when, women and men, we have a special responsibility. The present era is the superlative embodiment of this.
Without paying for words, let us pause for a moment in silence within ourselves to recognize the tragedy that is being played out and to state with lucidity: we are facing History.
The beam of environmental calamities that are falling at an alarming rate across the entire surface of the planet must question here and now our digital hunger in the endless race for speed, data volume and equipment accumulation.
This employee initiative was born spontaneously from a person-to-person dialogue. It is not the emanation of a militant approach in the traditional sense. We, engineers, researchers, technicians, experts, believe deeply in Orange's values and it is in this capacity that we believe our Group is intellectually capable of piloting strategic orientations that are truly controversial, especially when they raise the question of the future of humanity and of all living things.
Let's dare, now, to stop the deployment of 5G.
Bibliography
"Let's dare, now, to stop the deployment of 5G."
The text of Orange employees denouncing the excesses of this new technology:
Why stop 5G: sharing an awareness
Translation (Original text in French)
https://www.demain-en-mains.info/stopper-la-5-g
Contents
Summary
I. The environmental and energy risk
I.1. Depletion of resources, reality
I.2. The illusion of recycling
I.3. Energy drunkenness
II. Financial risk
II.1. Investments: what visibility?
II.2. A weakened economic system
III. For which cases of use?
III.1. Budgetary realities of telesurgery
III.2. Computer realities of the autonomous car
III.3. Cyber security risks
IV. The necessary refocusing on resilient infrastructures
IV.1. The increase in network incidents of climatic origin
IV.2. Rising waters
IV.3. For the resilience of our industry
IV.4. Time to decide
V. Conclusion
Bibliography
Summary
Environmental issues permeate the whole of society and infuse all our markets: General Public, Professional, Key Accounts. As Orange employees, who have always been lulled by the promises of technology, we ourselves have had difficulty in fully appreciating the impact of digital technology on the planet. It took us a long time to understand what our room for action could be. Today, through this document, we would like to share our awareness with as many people as possible. Because yes, our social and environmental responsibility is committed. At a time when Orange wants to make a name for itself through the release of an "eco-responsible" LiveBox, it is time to be coherent.
We are all deeply keen to ensure the survival of our company, and it is precisely for this reason that we are calling for the end of the deployment of 5G, especially for the general public.
5G, as a support for the multiplication of uses and the manufacture of countless connected objects, will lead to an unsustainable consumption of physical resources and energy that will increase the global ecological disaster. Each use, each object will generate unmanageable waste that will aggravate the generalized pollution. As it stands, 5G is not justified by any established economic perspective despite its very high cost, nor any reasonable need for new services for our customers. Finally, 5G presents regulatory and cyber security risks.
Let's examine together, instead of the 5G project and by reusing the resources allocated to it, alternative scenarios to refocus our businesses towards the objectives of resilience and digital sobriety. To build a network, products and services that are sustainable are to be an ethical leader, truly innovative and visionary. It also means restoring meaning to work and enabling each of us to feel deeply proud to be Orange.
This document presents an initial analysis of the environmental consequences and major risks associated with the deployment of 5G. It is based on serious documentary sources, which can be consulted in the bibliography. It shows that the continuity of our functions as a telecoms operator and digital services company is threatened in the short term.
To retain
At a time when environmental issues can no longer be ignored, it is urgent to redefine Orange's strategy and stop the deployment of 5G. Because this highly resource- consuming technology will bring no return on investment, no social gain, and requires a very significant financial and environmental cost, let us refuse to deploy it, and mobilize our resources on projects of resilience and digital sobriety.
I. The environmental and energy risk
We are convinced that 5G carries direct and indirect dangers for the environment, which we propose to address in this document in a rigorous and scientific manner.
Consequently, we will leave aside for the moment the questions concerning the dangerousness of millimeter waves. We will concentrate on macroscopic realities established by scientific and field sources (see bibliography): depletion of resources; waste problems; energy cravings.
I.1. Depletion of resources, reality
Network infrastructures on the one hand (routing components, servers, new antennas, etc.) and terminals on the other hand - which are set to undergo renewal and a quantitative explosion - have to face up to an inescapable physical reality: the planet's metal resources are becoming increasingly scarce. Journalist Guillaume Pitron sums up the geopolitical stakes well [1]. Let's say it outright: ignoring the resulting trajectories of scarcity would be tantamount to suicidal denial at the present time. In other words, not being informed today is a deliberate choice, if one takes into account the profusion of media of all persuasions, from France Culture [2] to Income [3], from Mediapart [4] to Capital [5][6], which cast a harsh light on this reality. Shortages tomorrow, human and environmental calamities today... What Le Revenu, for example, describes with unusual accents, is eloquently chilling: "The conditions of extraction of rare metals and their environmental consequences are controversial: dumping of toxic waste, pollution of the water tables, lack of protection for workers, damage to soil fertility, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, contamination of water, soil, air and ecosystems, carcinogenic discharges.” What Capital magazine reports has a tone no less unprecedented, which should challenge us: "Where it is established, mining activity generates land dispossession, violence against the community, destabilizes democracy, promotes corruption of institutions, pollutes water, poisons rivers ...".
The tone is set in the ethical field. It echoes the uncompromising statement made by the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Denis Mukwege [7] (child labor, violence against women, working conditions in the mines, etc.) but, whatever our (in)sensitivity to this social disaster, we cannot pretend to ignore a dryly quantitative reality. For example, silver, antimony, chromium, gold [8], zinc, indium, neodymium, strontium, tin, lead, copper itself, and other non-metallic resources are likely to face supply difficulties over the next two decades [9][10], and for some in the much shorter term - whether due to stock depletion or geostrategic instability [11]. The electronics industry acknowledges that it is deeply affected by this trajectory right now [12], as L'Usine Nouvelle [13] is alarmed. Tesla is similarly concerned with the U.S. government about the threat of supply [14]. The manufacture of new generations of smartphones and 5G connected objects will therefore accelerate the agenda of this tension over resources, as Hugues Ferreboeuf [15][16] and Jean-Marc Jancovici [17] have mentioned, with the latter's company Carbone 4 also advising Orange.
It is high time for us to open our eyes, firstly, to the criminal destruction of the environment caused by the addiction to smartphones renewed at such a frantic and unjustified pace [18], and, secondly, to the particular responsibility of our digital industry, which knowingly pays a conscious tribute to such renewal, given the stacking of increasingly fast cellular networks, which are stimulating demand all the more.
All ethical notions eventually put aside, and reality being hopelessly stubborn, it seems vital to make our ambitions correspond to a reality that cannot be masked from now on: sobriety will have to be learned among all the major economic players who consume rare metals, or even certain common metals.
In a more peripheral way, we must finally keep in mind other shortages, such as the shortage of concrete, a veritable countdown to the global sand crisis [19].
I.2. The illusion of recycling
Given these worrying prospects, is recycling a solution?
Evoking the complete renewal of current equipment and the construction of a myriad of new terminals also raises the question of these objects as future waste [20]. At a time when major players such as China are changing their historical strategy for dealing with electronic waste from the rest of the world [21], we will not be able to avoid a debate on the entire life cycle.
As demonstrated over and over again by surveys, recycling is expensive, very insufficient and it remains one industrial process among others that emits carbon. Françoise Berthoud, from the CNRS (French National Center for Scientific Research), points out bluntly that "[...] Even in France, only 50% of our end-of-life electronic equipment undergoes a suitable process. This, because of losses during recycling and the technological impossibilities to recycle certain materials, results in a very low material recycling (around 3% of the weight of smartphones - waste, for example).”[22]. Waste mafias are powerfully organized and devastate entire territories (on the African continent, in particular [23]) while the responsibility of large companies on these issues is insufficiently developed.
In this context, the CNRS has shown us, in our premises at Orange Gardens, that even if we achieved a theoretical recycling of 100% of materials today (which is not possible), this remains incompatible with an exponential increase in the objects produced (and therefore in the need for materials) [24].
Recycling is therefore necessary but very insufficient. We cannot therefore remain indifferent to the warnings of ADEME and the Shift Project, both advocating an attitude of digital sobriety [25] (theorized in the report of the same name [26]) that is totally contradictory to the accumulation of equipment linked to 5G uses [17].
I.3. Energy drunkenness
Numerous optimizations are being made to improve the energy impact of our networks [27] and the watt per customer use at Orange has even been reduced by more than a third in a decade [28], which is commendable, since EDF is also Orange's leading supplier in terms of spending. Our Group consumes 4.3TWh, the equivalent of the consumption of 960,000 French people (2017 figure) [29] or the equivalent of all the electricity produced in Lithuania (2016 figure) [30], a European country of 3 million inhabitants.
Massively deploying 5G, regardless of the optimizations at work, is a cumulative act (as long as the networks of previous generations remain in place, given the regulatory obligations stipulated by ARCEP [31]). This stacking of networks will induce a new increase in our overall consumption. The impact of 5G itself, independently of the consumption of other networks, is for the moment difficult to estimate, according to our own CSR [32]. However, as historical hindsight shows, Jevons' paradox (or "rebound effect", stating that "[...] as technological improvements increase the efficiency with which a resource is used, the total consumption of that resource may increase rather than decrease [...]" [33]) has been verified for each gain in efficiency or energy performance. Such an empirically verifiable permanence of the effects on consumption invites questioning.
In short, we are on the verge of consuming more and more energy, and this reality must be confronted with the risks inherent to the energy sector, which faces enormous challenges [34].
For the first time, no doubt, we are no longer in a position to give free rein to our ontological carelessness, which consists in persuading ourselves that, as always, we will find a solution.... The supply of electrical energy is today subject to increasing tensions, among other things due to heat waves [35] that are certainly becoming commonplace. The risks and, alas, the occurrences of blackouts are evident from this. The probability of these risks is growing. Also, the strategy aimed at deploying an additional, energy-intensive network weakens the availability of all our services, whereas our opportunities would be to aim for a principle of resilience, which we will discuss later.
To retain
Threats to resources are multiple, from metals to rare earths and even concrete. At the same time, recycling provides only a partial response and our energy consumption is constantly increasing. Our company must integrate the constraints that currently weigh on our sector of activity and orient its strategy towards greater sobriety...
II. Financial risk
II.1. Investments: what visibility?
Deploying 5G requires several types of investments: financial, material and human.
Firstly, experimentation and prototyping require resources in man-days, network element adaptation operations, even advertising and media coverage. Then come the investments in licenses. In Germany and Italy, operators have collectively spent more than 6.5 billion euros [36][37][38]. It is likely that the cost of licenses for Orange, in France, exceeds one billion euros. In France, these state licensing awards for 5G are likely to be accompanied by particularly demanding coverage clauses [39]: "Quid pro quos will be demanded from operators. They will most likely have to make strong commitments in terms of territorial coverage.”
From a hardware point of view, 5G represents considerable investments in its physical infrastructure (new antennas at a rate of €9,000 to €15,000 per unit, modification of lower generation antennas that can be reused in the first phase of deployment, at a rate of €2,000 to €5,000 per unit [40]). 5G can initially be deployed only where 4G is already in place, according to the co-location principle decreed by ARCEP. [41]
Finally, the "network slicing" technology will be accompanied by an upgrade of the middle and core network components and the addition of software virtualization elements [42], which will increase the cost in terms of investment.
II.2. A weakened economic system
In a more general framework to be taken with caution when it comes to economic forecasting, the risk of recession in the United States as early as 2020, and hence of a global recession, is underlined by many economists - Americans included. Various financial bubbles are threatening to burst (such as the US student debt of US$1,500 billion) and the inversion of the Treasury Bill yield curve is tetanizing macroeconomic analysts [43]. In early October 2019, in the context of the global economic slowdown, the IMF pointed to the risk of an increase in the debt of companies exposed to default, to the tune of US$19 trillion, more than in 2008. [44]. The support mechanisms for the banking sector that prevailed in 2008 are unlikely to be renewed in the event of a real crisis. And we are currently observing the massive injection of liquidity by central banks, reflecting an infusion of liquidity into the economic system [45][46][47]. Until when?
In France, the recent "yellow jackets" crisis is also prompting us to reconsider the idea of offering high-value 5G packages (which seems to be the Group's strategy, with packages envisaged at around €65 per month...). Do we really think that French households will accept this new expense when a significant proportion of French people are struggling to make ends meet? We believe it is essential to assess our customers' ability over the next few years to devote an increasing budget to digital access services and related equipment. The reserve of French households in the face of excess of electronic equipment is shown by a May 2019 BVA Orange survey: 73% of respondents believe that the development of digital equipment has a significant impact on the environment [48].
This reminds us that, in a highly unstable world, our customers' fundamental expectation of their operators is the seamless resilience of simple, robust services. In other words, the ability to contact their loved ones at all times to check up on them and to contact emergency services if necessary. Isn't that what we want too? [49].
To retain
The deployment of 5G will require massive investments: what is the budget equation envisaged, the business plan envisaged? Do they exist? The investments will commit the company in the long term, at a time when the global economic system is showing worrying signs of weakening.
III. For which cases of use?
Above all, in the face of these expenses and constraints demanded by the public authorities, what are the prospects for returns on investment? We do not wish to disqualify the legitimate enthusiasm that the announcement of new services can generate, because such a stance would be contrary to our spirit of innovation. But we do wish, given the risks presented in the preceding paragraphs on materials and energy, to invite a distinction between the necessary and the superfluous; possible unicorns and plausible fiascos; exceptional use of everyday use [50].
Thus we must question ourselves about the real perimeter of certain cases of repeated ad libitum use as if they alone justified the arsenal of an additional generation of cellular telephony [51], such as the two emblematic examples of telesurgery [52] and the autonomous car.
III.1 Budgetary realities of telesurgery
If technology can save human lives, a realistic framework must be provided. The implementation of telesurgery is by nature circumscribed - that is, a doctor will not operate from a restaurant on a patient who is lost in the countryside. A telesurgery operation will require investments in robotics that would be out of reach for a local hospital structure, even a modern one. In France, the hospital sector is already under severe budgetary pressure [53]. 5G is only the link between hospital robots that are inaccessible to the general public or to hospitals [54] and this link already exists with fiber optics (technically available since 2001). The use of 5G in a medical context is perhaps worth studying, but in any case should be dissociated from the idea of a 5G for the general public.
III.2 Digital realities of the autonomous car
The large-scale deployment of the autonomous car, of which 5G would be the prerequisite, requires recalling the intrinsic limits of artificial intelligence [55] ("there is a logical contradiction in wanting to create something autonomous: how can a system be programmed to have non-programmed behavior?" exclaims Églantine Schmitt [56]); the gigantic storage needs; and the immense software processing capacities that would have to be summoned to ensure the circulation of these vehicles [57].
To quote Philippe Bihouix [58]: "An autonomous car should generate a few dozen to several hundred MB of data per second. Depending on the actual time of use (an average of 1h30 per day for the average person's car, but use could increase significantly with cars making automatic journeys for multiple customers), the daily data flow could be several thousand GB - 4000 GB according to Intel. There are currently nearly 1 billion cars on Earth - 1.2 billion since the beginning of 2019 [59]. "A single million autonomous vehicles would [then] require as much data exchange as 3 billion people connected to their phones or tablets," explains the CEO of Intel France, Stéphane Nègre. A data explosion that would be nothing extraordinary for the digital sector... if it did not lead to the same explosion in energy consumption and therefore environmental damage.”
In conclusion, and in view of the mixed beginnings of 5G in the United States [61], we ask the question: what then is the killer application justifying 5G?
III.3. Cybersecurity risks
5G IoT is a concern for experts, given the increased penetration area for hackers. As the number of connected objects increases, it becomes more difficult to protect and monitor access to these objects. According to a study by Netscout, connected objects are attacked within 5 minutes of being connected to the Internet [62]. Moreover, the increase in speed allows for larger DDOS (Distributed Denial Of Service) attacks: "More IoT devices means bigger botnets [...]. The Mirai type varieties were self-limiting in terms of the size they could get [...]. But with millions or billions of IoT devices [63] out there, these botnets can get much, much bigger.”
And when it comes to new, highly critical uses such as autonomous driving or smart-home, a cyber attack is no longer just a problem of brand image or loss of customer data. “When controlling your car on the freeway, performing remote surgery or providing power to cities, a cyber-attack can literally become a matter of life or death.” [63].
Do we really want to promote such risky cases of use, when the natural threats weighing on the planet are already critical?
To retain
The cases of use currently put forward to promote 5G are of a forward-looking nature and will not be able to support the move to scale. These same uses will increase our dependence on technology to the point of entrusting our lives to it, placing us in a situation of critical vulnerability in the face of cyber-attacks.
IV. The need to refocus on resilient infrastructures
IV.1. The multiplication of network incidents of climatic origin
In August 2019, the city of London was "plunged into darkness" for 2 hours due to a combination of malfunctions on the national power grid. The Daily Telegraph gives an apocalyptic account of it [64], ranging from the railway cut-off to the silent mobile networks and various anomalies affecting public services (hospitals, etc.). "Trains stop, traffic lights go out. The Ipswich hospital is no longer powered by the electrical grid and its backup generators are also failing. The only relay for its emergency systems are batteries." Almost a million people are affected in total, never before seen [65].
The long energy supply crisis that Venezuela experienced at the beginning of 2019, and its dramatic repercussions [66], give a measure of the risk we are facing.
Such disasters could also affect France, and the blackout almost occurred in January 2019. [67] RTE reacted quickly by asking interruptible industrial consumers [68] to "instantly reduce their electricity consumption by more than 1,500 MW in order to raise the frequency [NB: ...which has fallen significantly below 50Hz]". During the summer of 2019, EDF had to temporarily shut down several nuclear reactors because of heat waves. [69] Finally, at the beginning of September 2019, 5 reactors were threatened with temporary shutdown [70], which represents, taking into account the size of the French sector (58 reactors) and the share of nuclear power in the electricity production mix (71%) [71], between 5 and 8% of the total electrical energy produced in France.
In addition to documented blackouts, the prevalence of climatic origins for network incidents in Europe is increasing: 169 incidents involving communication networks in Europe were recorded in 2017 by the European Network and Information Security Agency (ENISA), which states that 17% of outages were due to climatic phenomena such as snow, ice, storms and fires. Three years earlier, this rate was only 5% [72].
An energetic sword of Damocles hangs over us and we must lucidly face this reality: because of our energy trajectory, we are dancing above a volcano and, what is more, the predominantly nuclear energy sector on which we depend is in a precarious state [73].
Such episodes, given the acceleration of climate change, are bound to multiply.
IV.2 Rising waters
In a broader framework than that of energy, the rise of the oceans, a tragic consequence of the climate disruption induced by anthropic activity, will pose a direct threat to the stability of the global Internet given the risks of submerging vital digital infrastructures, as in New York [75][76]. The Goldman Sachs report "Taking the Heat" of September 2019 is very explicit about our imperatives of preparedness and warns of the need for extensive urban planning, investments in coastal protection, climate-resilient building patterns, more robust infrastructure, improved water and waste management systems, energy resilience, and stronger communication and transportation systems: "[...] Urban adaptation could drive one of the largest infrastructure build-outs in history. Greater resilience will likely require extensive urban planning, with investments in coastal protections, climate-resilient construction, more robust infrastructure, upgraded water and waste-management systems, energy resilience and stronger communications and transportation systems. [...] “ [78]
IV.3. For the resilience of our industry
According to ARCEP's [Electronic Communications, Postal and Print Media Distribution Regulatory Authority] definition in its 2018 activity report [79], network resilience consists of "the ability of an operator to ensure the return to normal operation of the infrastructures it operates and the services it provides in the shortest possible time, following major failures of its network causing degradation and service interruptions".
As ARCEP still regretted at the end of 2016 in a notice to the Cour des Comptes [80], "The issues related to the resilience of communication networks do not today benefit from the same dynamics as digital security issues".
Given the seriousness of the multiple threats pointed out above, this opinion appears to be highly topical.
We therefore believe it is essential to refocus our activities on our primary mission as an operator, around principles of resilience, the very principles that have enabled the Internet to flourish. The TCP/IP protocol and dynamic routing, children of the Cold War, are the historical embodiment of military resilience. We believe we need to recognize today the need for climate resilience in the telecommunications sector.
This climate resilience implies ambitious principles of sobriety, which are incompatible with 5G. The firm Carbone 4, which advises Orange on energy issues, led by energy expert Jean-Marc Jancovici, makes recommendations in this regard calling for a fundamental transformation. This expert reminds us at all times that the deployment of 5G is incompatible with the commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [17], commitments that the digital industry as a whole, with an increase in energy expenditure of 9% per year, compromises by its deadly energy-intensive runaway [81].
What's more, the resilience of our industry, both at Orange and our competitors, will be put to the test in the years and decades to come. To illustrate this, among various disorders affecting the planet's equilibrium, let's take just one example of cardinal importance: climate migration, the upper range of which could reach one billion people according to the UN by 2050 [82]. Within emigration zones as well as in host countries, these population movements will give a preponderant role to telecommunications (finding a resource, contacting a relative, etc.).
Our services of tomorrow will therefore be: robust, sparing, simple, and highly secure against cyber-attackers.
IV.4. Time to make choices
We are faced with an alternative: to pursue an ecocide at a very high cost and for uses that have not been demonstrated to be either worthwhile or necessary, or to initiate a shift towards sobriety and resilience approaches for our products and services.
Other advantages of this strategy: generating real financial savings and generating sympathy among populations whose concern for the climate is growing, as shown by the success of recent global mobilizations [83], particularly among the young digital native generations.
In a similar vein, a collective of internationally renowned data scientists has just published a call to orient research in Artificial Intelligence towards solving the climate crisis [84], accompanied by concrete proposals [85]. While we have put data at the heart of our strategy, let us not remain deaf to this initiative.
Finally, it is the whole of society which, in the majority (seven French people out of ten [86]), is beginning to question a current model of economic development based on outbidding and renewal ad nauseam. Some business leaders, in an unusual way, in turn point out the tipping point we have reached: "We can no longer base the economy on the extraction of fossil materials and energy, we can no longer act as if there were no limits. There is no solution to the level of resource consumption where we are. In any case, we will have to reduce our consumption, whatever happens. For a company, this means that we can no longer rush into a product because there is a market to be taken. Instead, we have to ask ourselves if it is useful for society to produce a certain product and, if so, whether we are producing it in the right way. In fact, we must accept the end of economic domination over society”. This is how Jacques Crahay [87], leader and president of the UWE, the Walloon equivalent of our MEDEF, expresses himself.
We have the know-how, the material and financial means, allowing us to make major strategic changes.
Our GPEC has several times demonstrated our ability to adapt.
We have the communication power of the major digital players, to write and broadcast the story of our technological orientations. To our customers and shareholders alike.
With great power comes great responsibility.
We can lead this paradigm shift.
We can move away from the green-washing postures that strongly discredit our sincerity and will be, in a deterministic way, powerless to stem the climatic and humanitarian disasters to come.
To retain
Observing reality forces us to put the imperative of resilience of our infrastructures and services back at the heart of our strategy. Our services of tomorrow will have to be robust, sparing, simple, and highly secure to meet the challenges that lie ahead. Orange has the means to achieve these ambitions.
V. Conclusion
There are times when, women and men, we have a special responsibility. The present era is the superlative embodiment of this.
Without paying for words, let us pause for a moment in silence within ourselves to recognize the tragedy that is being played out and to state with lucidity: we are facing History.
The beam of environmental calamities that are falling at an alarming rate across the entire surface of the planet must question here and now our digital hunger in the endless race for speed, data volume and equipment accumulation.
This employee initiative was born spontaneously from a person-to-person dialogue. It is not the emanation of a militant approach in the traditional sense. We, engineers, researchers, technicians, experts, believe deeply in Orange's values and it is in this capacity that we believe our Group is intellectually capable of piloting strategic orientations that are truly controversial, especially when they raise the question of the future of humanity and of all living things.
Let's dare, now, to stop the deployment of 5G.
Bibliography
[Note, on 8 November 2020, we checked the links - most date from 2019 and some are no longer available.]
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[87] https: //www.lecho.be/economie-politique/belgique/economie/notre-modele-e ... uwe / 10166580.html . PAGE UNAVAILABLE
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