New Phoenix Center Study Finds No Evidence that 5G Deployment has Delivered Promised Economic Benefits

NEW PHOENIX CENTER STUDY FINDS NO EVIDENCE THAT 5G DEPLOYMENT HAS DELIVERED PROMISED ECONOMIC BENEFITS

Analysis of Federal Data Shows Industry Claims of Trillion-Dollar GDP Impact and Millions of Jobs Lack Empirical Support

Press Release, Phoenix Center, May 28, 2025

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The mobile wireless industry has spent the past decade promoting 5G as a transformative technology that will boost the U.S. economy by over $1 trillion and create millions of jobs. Industry groups claimed 5G represented a “technological paradigm shift, akin to the shift from typewriter to computer” that will fundamentally transform American life—from healthcare and transportation to manufacturing and education.

In a new study released today entitled The 5G Promise Falls Short of Reality: Examining Economic Impact Claims, Phoenix Center Chief Economist Dr. George S. Ford analyzes federal data on 5G availability and key economic indicators across U.S. counties to test whether these sweeping promises have materialized. His findings are clear: there is no evidence that 5G deployment has improved employment, wages, business growth, personal income, or GDP.

Using difference-in-differences analysis with inverse probability weighting to address selection bias, Dr. Ford examines county-level economic outcomes from 2014-2018 (pre-5G) compared with 2022-2023 (post-5G deployment). The study analyzes data from 2,935 counties with varying levels of 5G coverage, controlling for parallel trends and other methodological concerns.

“Despite the industry’s sweeping promises, the data show no measurable economic impact from 5G so far,” said study author Phoenix Center Chief Economist Dr. George S. Ford. “All regression coefficients are small and statistically indistinguishable from zero across every economic outcome measured—employment, wages, business establishments, personal income, and GDP.”

The analysis reveals a stark disconnect between industry marketing and economic reality. While Boston Consulting Group studies commissioned by CTIA claimed 5G would contribute $1.4 to $1.7 trillion to U.S. GDP and create 3.8 to 4.6 million jobs, Dr. Ford’s empirical analysis finds no support for such claims. The study’s findings align with growing skepticism about 5G’s transformative
potential.

The study does not imply that 5G lacks value—better connectivity can support specific use cases and improve service quality. However, it raises serious questions about industry narratives positioning 5G as a fundamental economic game-changer, particularly as the industry begins promoting 6G technology and seeking additional spectrum allocations.

“As the industry begins to promote 6G and lobby for additional spectrum, policymakers should approach industry claims about economic transformation with appropriate skepticism,” Dr. Ford concludes. “Policy decisions should be rooted in realistic assessments of relevant marginal costs and benefits rather than industry marketing campaigns.”

The study recommends that government funding allocations, spectrum policy decisions, and regulatory frameworks be based on evidence rather than hype as the industry transitions toward promoting next-generation wireless technologies.

A full copy of PHOENIX CENTER POLICY PERSPECTIVE NO. 25-03, The 5G Promise Falls Short of Reality: Examining Economic Impact Claims, may be downloaded free from the Phoenix Center’s web page at:
http://www.phoenix-center.org/perspectives/Perspective25-03Final.pdf.

The Phoenix Center is a non-profit 501(c)(3) organization that studies broad public-policy issues related to governance, social and economic conditions, with a particular emphasis on the law and economics of the digital age.

Phoenix Center for Advanced Legal & Economic Public Policy Studies5335 Wisconsin Avenue, NW
Suite 440
Washington, D.C. 20015-0234
Tel: +1 (202) 274-0235
Fax: +1 (202) 318-4909
www.phoenix-center.org
Contact: Lawrence J. Spiwak
Phone: +1 (202) 274-0235

https://www.phoenix-center.org/perspectives/Perspective25-03PressReleaseFinal.pdf

Excerpts from the study:


"My findings are straightforward: there is no evidence that 5G deployment has improved employment, wages, business growth, personal income, or GDP. Despite the industry’s sweeping promises, the data show no measurable economic impact from 5G so far."

"Yet perhaps the best rebuke of the 5G hype came from Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) who remarked on the Senate floor: “there is going to be a lot of hype from the telecommunications companies” about 5G, “they are going to tell you that 5G can grow hair, that 5G can cure erectile dysfunction, that 5G can do this and it can do that.”

"The empirical analysis presented in this PERSPECTIVE finds no evidence that 5G deployment has delivered the massive economic benefits promised by the mobile wireless industry. Despite claims that 5G would generate $1.4 to $1.7 trillion in GDP and create 3.8 to 4.6 million jobs, this analysis finds no statistically significant positive effects on employment, wages, business establishments, personal income, or GDP across U.S. counties with varying levels of 5G coverage."

"Ultimately, while broadband technology improvements are worth pursuing, government funding allocations, spectrum policy decisions and regulatory frameworks should be based on realistic assessments of relevant margins rather than industry marketing campaigns. Policymakers would be well-advised to set aside the hype and focus on evidence-based expectations when formulating spectrum policy."

http://www.phoenix-center.org/perspectives/Perspective25-03Final.pdf